Refi Rescue from Washington Will Be Met with New Whining from Wall Street

After an outcry from the public, the stimulus package from DC has help for people who need to refinance their properties in order to keep them.

The result is the “Refi Plus Program” which will go into effect April 5th, 2009. So now the following bullet points that sum up the loans:

• Present loan must be a FNMA loan
• No Minimum Credit Score Required
• New Lender Does Not Need to Be the Current Lender
• Reduced Income Documentation Allowed on All Loan Applications
• The automated system most lenders use will assess borrowers for this program and the automation will help increase the number of approved clients requesting Refi Plus.
• If existing loan does not have mortgage insurance (MI), the new loan will not have MI regardless of the Loan to Value.·
• The New Loan must be a 5+ year fixed term loan (5, 7, 10, 15, 30 year type loan).·
• Loan to Value(LTV) OK up to 105% with an unlimited CLTV(combined ltv--for more than one loan) subject to the 2nd lender allowing the subordination.
• 3 to 4 unit only ok to 80% but after May 3rd, 2009, ok to 105% Loan to Value.

There will be more to follow as we get closer to April 5, 2009. Even so, looking at the list, one colleague pointed out that even though the LTV is over 100% it will be hard for many who are under water to actually float again. Because even that high Loan to Value doesn't cover the 50 plus percent that housing values sank.

For example Joe and Jane Wishful bought a house in Tracy in 2005 at $400,000 and borrowed $390,000 . Well they would pay about $2400/month. Even if they had a regular loan, one that paid principal and interest without mortgage insurance and never missed a payment they would be in trouble. Not through their wrongdoing, but because of their luck. Part of the trouble is basic, in every loan the first payments basically cover more of the interest than the principal. So, with perfect payments on a $390,000 at 6.25% fixed interest for 30 years at the end of 3 years, they would still owe $388,884.06. That's not the bad luck part, that is basic finance.

Now enter bad luck. Because so many other houses have foreclosed, because their neighbors didn't make the mortgage for whatever reason, the market is down. Meaning that Joe and Jane's house is losing value as their loan interest accrues. And they are not alone; this housing crisis has hit California hard. The overall decrease in house value in CA is over 50%. So that means Mr and Mrs Wishful have a $390,000 loan on a $200,000 house, in TODAY'S MARKET. The refinance options in the stimulus allows a LTV (Loan to Value) 105% which means that they can only get a $210,000 loan. So that amount won't cover a $390,000 refinance.

There is a loss no doubt. The question is, 'who should take the loss?' Joe and Jane Wishful, or the bank? How about the taxpayer? Who?

Welcome to the new debate. No one wants the loss. If the bank takes the loss for all the houses in this predictament then the bank fails. To many banksWell one idea is to allow the house be valued on a horizon of 3 to 5 years from now. The lender would not use today's market but base the value of the house on a prognostication (uhh, i.e. guess) of the house's future value. Okay, what is the upside to this future value loan? Simply, the it is that the loss is delayed or softened by time. And, ironically, time is the downside too. What if the estimate is wrong? There will still be a loss, but the pain of that loss would be compounded by a new loan for an amount that is more than the value of the house. That kind of speculating got us in this mess in the first place.

Look for this, a new debate--"Should houses be marked to Market?" And if they aren't, are we still in a free market system?

Photo Challenge Can You See Through the Recession Angst to the Real Estate Opportunity?

Is the glass half full or empty? The full extent of the economic crash has yet to be felt in the commercial real estate market. So is that a good thing or a bad one?

Depends if you are wanting to lease or buy commercial properties. Here's a challenge. Look at the CNN slide show and think about the amount of opportunity in the vacated land of those closed stores.

What can you do to make this work for your good and the good of your community?http://tinyurl.com/c7tq5n

If you have some ideas, it's your turn to share them. Take some pictures and in the comments, post or link your photos of stores that have closed in your neighborhood. Then give ideas of what the land should be used for now. Should it be a little league baseball diamond? Should it be a grocery store? A human services storefront? You decide.

Aunt Zietuni and Sacramento

Tuesday, November 4, 2008 cannot get here fast enough. I am sick of Republican smears. If the Republicans can smoke out the senior aunt of Senator Obama, why can’t they get Bin Laden? If they spent this much energy on governing the country, they wouldn’t be behind in the polls. Hey here’s one for the Sherlock Holmes on the Republican campaign---Where did the USA prosperity go? Huh, have a lead? Need a clue? “Mission Accomplished”

No matter how sexy the news story, Obama’s aunt is a red herring. Let’s all think about November 5, 2008. Okay, if the voting isn’t fully counted yet, then November 7th. Whatever the date, when the election is over, there is an economy to think about. A slow, crawling, languishing economy.

Not sexy, but true. Yes, the growth of the GDP is what? A memory? An old timer’s story for our children? And as the GDP goes by the wayside, so goes what? Standard of living? Wait, before you think I am over exaggerating, turn to the other section of your newspaper, the local section. Guess what happened this week?

In Sacramento one big company dealt the city not just one blow, but two. Trouble of a good company struggling in a bad economy. Target Corp. is called the big box with a heart, because they dedicate a tithe of sorts to the communities they serve.

Representatives told the city of Sacramento that they are going to skip building a store at Broadway and Riverside. And then, if that wasn’t painful enough, they actually decided to skip the store in Westfield downtown too. So now the city has to sharpen new pencils with bigger erasers and adjust job growth and revenue projections. http://www.sacbee.com/latest/story/1354464.html

Oh, did I mention dominoes? Here’s the thing, Target is an anchor store, that means that it provides the foot traffic for smaller stores. Certain stores rely on bigger stores for foot traffic. Think about the food court in a mall. Would there be reliable income for those small restaurants without the mall? So when Target goes, other more vulnerable businesses decide to cancel or not buy in also. So that click sound is the dominoes falling one after the other.

So why the big whoop over the latest attack on Senator Obama? We need to change the economy situation so family can bear the long cold winter that’s already coming.